Market Overview — March 2026
S&P 500
6,632
▼ −1.54% YTD
Nasdaq
22,105
▼ −3.4% Feb
WTI Crude
$98.71
▲ +3.1% wk
VIX
Elevated
3rd losing week
March has been a month defined by geopolitical shock and sector rotation. The joint US-Israeli military action against Iran, which began over the weekend of 1–2 March, sent oil prices surging through $95 and toward $100 per barrel — levels not seen since 2022. The initial market reaction was surprisingly muted, but as the conflict has dragged on, the consequences have become increasingly difficult for equity investors to ignore.
The S&P 500 has now recorded three consecutive weeks of losses, its longest losing streak in nearly a year, and sits -1.54% year to date and approximately 5% below its January all-time high. Critically, the equal-weighted S&P 500 tells a different story — it is actually up 3.16% year to date, confirming what VSA analysis has been telling us for months: this is a market of stocks, not a stock market. Mega-cap technology has been the primary drag, while energy, utilities, and consumer staples have been the places to be.
Stagflation concerns are mounting. February non-farm payrolls fell by 92,000 — a significant miss — while oil-driven inflation expectations are rising. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey fell to 55.5 in March. This is precisely the environment the Wyckoff method was built for: when indices are unreliable guides, structural analysis of individual instruments becomes essential.
"The market never behaves the same way twice — but its structure always tells a story. In March 2026, that story is one of rotation, not collapse. The Fund has been reading it correctly."
Nick Cowan, Director
Trade Review — Open Positions
The Fund entered the month with a carefully constructed book of long positions, predominantly in energy and defensive names identified through our Wyckoff accumulation screening process. Below we highlight the key trades, with full transparency on entry levels, stop-loss protection and targets.
APEI Long
American Public Education, Inc. · NASDAQ
Open ✓
Setup: Textbook VCP (Volatility Contraction Pattern) breakout identified via our Wyckoff accumulation screening. After months of base-building and progressively tighter price contractions — the final contraction measured just 3.3% — APEI broke out on 13 March with volume approximately 8× its 30-day average. This is precisely the kind of institutional sponsorship our VSA methodology is designed to detect. The stock surged +21% on the breakout day alone. Stop is anchored below the last significant LPS (Last Point of Support) pivot at $43.26, providing a clearly defined risk parameter. Target derived from Wyckoff price projection methodology. Trade remains open with full position intact.
LYB Long
LyondellBasell Industries · NYSE
Open ✓
Setup: Multi-year accumulation base with a Spring formation followed by a significant Sign of Strength breakout through the Creek, accompanied by volume running at roughly 2× the 30-day moving average. Entered on 11 February. The Elder Force Index spike on breakout confirmed substantial institutional buying. LYB is the Fund's strongest performing open position. The Wyckoff target derived from the PnF count stands at $78.87. The position represents a compelling risk/reward profile; trailing stop protection is being finalised to lock in gains.
APA Long
APA Corporation · NASDAQ
Open ✓
Setup: Entered 27 February, ahead of the Iran conflict escalation, on the basis of Wyckoff accumulation signals and improving RS (Relative Strength) versus the S&P 500. The position has benefited significantly from the energy sector tailwind. Critically, the stop has been trailed above the entry price — this position is now effectively risk-free with meaningful profit locked in. A demonstration of disciplined risk management in action.
EQT / CTRA / EQNR Long
Energy Sector Cluster · NYSE
Open ✓
Thesis: The Fund has deliberately built a cluster of energy names — natural gas (EQT), shale (CTRA) and Norwegian major EQNR — to reflect the Wyckoff macro read that energy accumulation was underway prior to any geopolitical catalyst. Each name was entered on its own merits via Wyckoff Creek breakouts, with stops anchored to their respective pivot lows. The Iran conflict has served as the distributional catalyst that smart money was anticipating. All three positions carry positive unrealised returns. EQNR was entered most recently on 13 March, 4/9 buy tests confirmed.
AWK / KR / EPSN Long
Defensive & Consumer Cluster · Various
Open ✓
Thesis: American Water Works (AWK) and Kroger (KR) represent the Fund's defensive positioning — utilities and consumer staples that historically outperform during stagflationary periods. Both were entered following Wyckoff Creek breakouts with stops placed at pivot lows. AWK (+2.6%) and KR (+1.8%) are performing in line with expectations. Epsilon Energy (EPSN), a small-cap natural gas producer, adds further energy exposure with an asymmetric reward profile; entry $5.37, target $7.50.
— • —
Closed & Exited Positions — March to Date
Not every trade works, and disciplined risk management means accepting losses when the market signals a setup has failed. The following positions were closed during the month via stop-loss execution or discretionary exit.
| Ticker |
Direction |
Entry |
Exit |
Reason |
Outcome |
| ACGL |
Long |
$100.08 |
$96.12 |
Stop triggered |
Modest loss |
| AVY |
Long |
— |
$187.88 |
Stop triggered |
Modest loss |
| NTR |
Long |
— |
$72.37 |
Stop triggered |
Modest loss |
| PFE |
Long |
— |
$26.87 |
Discretionary exit |
Small loss |
| TAP |
Long |
— |
$47.19 |
Discretionary exit |
Small loss |
| D |
Long |
$62.50 |
~$63.00 |
Capital redeployment |
Near breakeven |
Discipline note: Each stop-loss exit performed its intended function — limiting downside and preserving capital for redeployment into higher-conviction setups. The energy cluster (APA, EQT, CTRA, EQNR) and APEI have collectively generated returns that more than offset these small losses. This is the asymmetric reward profile the Wyckoff methodology is designed to produce.
Outlook & Strategy
The Fund enters the second half of March with a concentrated, high-conviction book of predominantly energy and defensive long positions. The macro backdrop — rising oil, stagflation risk, underperforming mega-cap tech — remains supportive of this positioning.
We are actively monitoring for distribution signals across the markets but also in our energy names as WTI crude approaches the $100 level, a psychologically and technically significant resistance zone. Should the conflict de-escalate, we would expect a rotation out of energy back into growth, and our trailing stops have been positioned accordingly.
The Wyckoff watchlist continues to generate new accumulation signals. We are particularly focused on names in the consumer staples, utilities and select industrials sectors that are showing classic Wyckoff base-building characteristics — long, tight, flat ranges with declining volume and improving relative strength versus the S&P 500. Silver (SI1!) remains on our radar as a longer-term commodity play with a significant PnF target.
As always, the objective is simple: buy or sell (short) as close to the beginning of a Markup or Mark down as possible, and hold it as close to its end as we can.
